Windows 11 has surpassed 71.5 percent market share as Microsoft doubles the price of Extended Security Updates for Windows 10's second year, according to Statcounter estimates reported by The Register. The shift comes as enterprises confront escalating costs for keeping legacy systems patched, forcing a reassessment of remaining holdout devices that haven't made the jump to the newer operating system.
Windows 10's share has fallen to 27.77 percent, according to tracking code Statcounter installed on more than 1 million sites worldwide. The figures represent directional trends rather than definitive counts, since Microsoft doesn't release official usage numbers. Market shares have remained relatively stable since a surge in Windows 11 adoption late last year, which followed Windows 10's end of support on October 14, 2025. Commercial customers paid $61 per device for the first year of Extended Security Updates, but year two renewals now cost $122 per device, with year three set to double again to $244. The program runs for a maximum of three years. Consumers can access free security updates through Microsoft Rewards Points or Windows Backup, and Windows 365 subscribers are exempt, while European Economic Area residents receive updates without conditions.
Esben Dochy, principal technology evangelist at Lansweeper, told The Register that enterprises moved aggressively off Windows 10 during the first year of ESU, but what remains is "stickier" hardware—peripherals that won't work with newer systems or machines caught in refresh cycles that don't align with Windows 11's hardware requirements. Dochy expects a "small bump" in migration around the renewal date, noting that "the ESU price doubles for the second year, and that makes the business case for replacing the 'we'll get to it' machines a lot easier." He cautioned that "the steep part of the curve is behind us," with remaining devices mostly ones where paying ESU is cheaper or simpler than replacing connected hardware.
The pricing escalation creates a straightforward calculation for IT departments: if a device can run Windows 11 and the upgrade path is clean, year two ESU pricing makes the migration more attractive. The doubling cost structure was designed to push organizations toward newer systems rather than indefinitely supporting aging infrastructure. For hardware pinned to legacy peripherals or unsupported processors, however, $122 per device might still beat a complete hardware replacement. The Statcounter numbers suggest migration may be materializing as year one licenses expire, though many Windows 10 holdouts appear willing to continue paying for security patches.
The clock on year two renewals starts whenever each organization's year one license expires, making renewal timing crucial for budget planning. For the remaining holdout devices—those where ESU is cheaper than replacement—the escalating fees represent simply the cost of maintaining business operations. Organizations should verify their renewal dates before the price increase takes effect to avoid unexpected budget impacts. The enterprise operating system market is entering a phase where financial pressure, rather than feature appeal, dictates upgrade decisions. Strategic IT leaders will need to weigh the declining marginal cost of new hardware against the compounding expense of延security patches for machines that technically still function.