Natural gas prices could soar above $10 per million BTUs in certain parts of the United States in the coming years, potentially tripling from current levels, according to a research report published August 14, 2026, by Noreva, an energy research firm. The forecast warns that tech giants like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft may come to regret their recent pivot toward natural gas to power artificial intelligence data centers, as surging demand collides with slowing supply growth and rising exports of liquefied natural gas.
Current natural gas prices range from roughly $2 to $4.50 per million BTUs across various delivery points, with the Henry Hub in Louisiana—a widely traded benchmark—priced just below $3. The tech companies have made enormous commitments to gas-fired power generation: Meta announced plans for a massive 7.5-gigawatt natural gas plant in Louisiana to supply its Hyperion data center, while Amazon intends to construct a 7.6-gigawatt gas facility in Texas. Microsoft and Google each revealed plans to build their own gigawatt-scale gas plants, both located in Texas. Because fuel accounts for approximately half the cost of electricity from a large power station, a doubling or tripling of natural gas prices would substantially increase operating expenses for these "bring your own power" AI data centers. About 80% of consumers already worry about data centers' effect on their utility bills, primarily concerning electricity.
"I think everyone in the energy markets has been lulled into a sense that gas prices can't go up," Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva, stated. The report notes that at least one investor expressed surprise at how much natural gas price risk the hyperscalers are accepting, with Gardett observing that "they're doing things that are not normal for an off-taker to do." According to Gardett, futures contracts aren't currently anticipating major price changes, making the tech companies' bet "not unreasonable" for the near term, though he remains unconvinced they're correct about the longer outlook.
The report explains that natural gas prices have remained stable thanks to years of relatively flat demand and consistent addition of new supplies that offset declining production from aging wells. That dynamic is shifting as energy companies face higher costs for new wells and can't expand supply at previous rates. More critically, the domestic gas market is becoming connected to global markets through newly built pipelines, particularly from West Texas, where natural gas has historically been an oil drilling byproduct sold at steep discounts due to limited pipeline infrastructure. As these pipelines channel gas toward export markets, regional prices will influence one another, creating large price differentials where abundant supply sits next to scarcity. The AI-driven demand surge from hyperscalers compounds this tightening market, fundamentally altering the arithmetic that kept prices low.
Gardett warned that this rapid expansion into fossil fuel markets represents unfamiliar territory for tech companies that have historically avoided large capital investments, predicting that "on future Alphabet earning calls, you will hear them talk about the correlation between natural gas pricing and Google results." Higher natural gas costs could either inflate token prices or push hyperscalers to connect to the electric grid instead, potentially driving up electricity rates for other consumers and adding a new dimension to public backlash against data centers. The report's central message is stark: simple arithmetic points to a much tighter gas market than existed just a few years ago, and the hyperscalers rushing to fuel AI ambitions with natural gas may find themselves materially vulnerable to price shocks they didn't anticipate. For companies that built their business models on abundant computing power at declining cost, energy market volatility introduces risk that could reshape profitability and strategic choices alike.